Forecasting GE's Profits, the Role of Targets and Financial Analysts
by Keith Sherin,Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, General Electric Company
Keith Sherin graduated from the University of Notre Dame with a B.S. in Mathematics in 1981 and he joined GE Power Systems on the Financial Management Program. He joined the Corporate Audit Staff in 1985 where he spent seven years in various positions including Executive Audit Manager and Manager of Programs and Planning.
Mr. Sherin completed his MBA at Columbia University in 1991 and he joined GE Aircraft Engines as the Manager of Finance for the Commercial Engine Operation. In 1993, he joined GE Plastics as the Manager of Finance for European Operations. In 1995, Keith joined GE Medical Systems as the Manager of Finance and Financial Services. He was promoted to Vice President in July 1996. In December of 1998, Keith was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of GE. In July 2007, Keith was named to his present position as Vice Chairman and CFO.
Keith serves on the Boards of the GE Foundation (the Company’s philanthropic foundation) and the University of Notre Dame Advisory Council for the College of Business Administration.
Keith, his wife Janet and their three children, Jake, Zach, and Maggie, live in Weston, Connecticut.
Forecasting Extreme Events: The Tipping Point for Global Warming and Crises in Financial Markets
by George Sugihara, Marine Microbiologist, University of California, San Diego
George Sugihara (Ph.D, Princeton) is a theoretician at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego, who has worked in a variety of fields, including algebraic topology, quantitative finance, and more recently fisheries, neurobiology and atmospheric science. Much of his research involves novel ways of probing complex data on natural systems using minimal assumptions to reconstruct the dynamics and forecast future states. One of his most interdisciplinary contributions involves work developed with Lord Robert May of Oxford University concerning methods of forecasting nonlinear and chaotic systems. This work took him to the arena of investment banking where he took a 5-year leave from academe to become a Managing Director for Deutsche Bank. There he made a successful application of these theoretical methods to forecast erratic market behavior. He is currently investigating the application of these methods to fisheries, and is interested in harnessing market forces as a means of risk abatement and to help rationalize the fishing industry toward higher revenues and sustainability. Recently, he has been called on by the NY Federal Reserve Bank and The Bank of England to provide advice on systemic risk and market collapse (nonlinear regime shifts). A former holder of the John Dove Isaacs Chair of Natural Philosophy at SIO/UCSD, Sugihara is recipient of various international awards, and is currently MacQuown Chair Professor of Natural Science at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, an Associate at the Neurosciences Research Institute, and is appointed to the National Academies Board on Mathematical Sciences and it’s Applications. Global climate change is his current worry.
Stalking the Black Swan: Research and Decision-Making in a World of Extreme Volatility
by Kenneth Posner, Securities Research Analyst and Author
Kenneth Posner was a managing director and senior research analyst at Morgan Stanley, where he covered a sector of stocks known as "specialty finance," including such controversial companies as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, American Express, and CIT Group.
He is the author of "Stalking the Black Swan: Research and Decision-Making in a World of Extreme Volatility."
Posner earned an MBA with honors from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and the Certified Public Accountant, Chartered Financial Analyst, and Financial Risk Manager designations. He is currently working for a company that seeks to invest in the bank industry.
The Role of Financial Statement Variables in Quantitative Strategies
by Matthew Rothman, Managing Director, Equity Research Head of Quantitative Equity Strategies Barclays Capital
Matthew Rothman, PhD, is a Managing Director and Head of Quantitative Equity Strategies within Equity Research at Barclays Capital.
He held the same role at Lehman Brothers prior to its purchase by Barclays Capital in September 2008. In his current capacity, he is responsible for US, European and Asian stock selection models. Dr. Rothman and his team also contribute to the development of equity risk models in POINT.
Dr. Rothman serves on the board of directors for the University of Notre Dame’s Center for Accounting Research and on the Board of Directors for the Innocence Project. In addition to his responsibilities at Barclays Capital, Dr. Rothman is a visiting professor of economics at Brown University where he co-teaches a course on Empirical Asset Pricing in Financial Markets.
Dr. Rothman received his BA in Philosophy from Brown University before completing his master’s in Statistics at Columbia University and his PhD in Finance at the University of Chicago.
The Implications of Adoption of International Accounting Standards for Quantitative Analysis Models
by Katherine Schipper, Duke University
Katherine Schipper is the Thomas F. Keller Professor of Business Administration at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business. Prior to joining Duke University’s faculty, she was a member of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). She has also been a faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Chicago.
Ms. Schipper has published research papers on a wide range of topics in financial reporting, corporation finance and corporate governance and she is a frequent speaker on matters related to international accounting convergence and financial reporting quality. She has been named the American Accounting Association’s Outstanding Educator, and Distinguished International Lecturer, and has been elected to the Accounting Hall of Fame. She has served the American Accounting Association as Director of Research, as President and as President of the Financial Accounting and Reporting Section. She is or has been a member of the governing boards of a public company, a mutual fund and a not-for-profit entity.
Ms. Schipper holds a BA degree from the University of Dayton, MBA, MA and PhD degrees from the University of Chicago and an honorary degree from the University of Notre Dame.
Investing to Mitigate Against Low-Probability, High Consequence Events Such as Hurricanes, Earthquakes, or Terrorist Attacks
by Robert Meyer, University of Pennsylvania
Robert Meyer is the Gayfryd Steinberg Professor and Co-Director of Wharton's Risk Management and Decision Processes Center. He is a noted scholar whose research focuses on consumer decision analysis, sales response modeling, and decision making under uncertainty.
As co-director of Wharton's Risk center, some of Professor Meyer's recent research has focused on how individuals decide to invest in mitigation against low-probability, high-consequence, events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or terrorist attacks. Using laboratory simulations Professor Meyer and his colleagues have been able to show that the much-publicized failures of preparation that contributed to the losses from such recent events as the Asian Tsunami and Hurricane Katrina are consistent with a number of hard-wired biases in how people respond to risk. This includes a tendency for people to fail to learn as much as they should from near-misses, and under-invest in instruments whose value can only be realized in the long run. One of the goals of the risk center is to aid the private and public sectors in developing strategies that allow these biases to be overcome.
Professor Meyer joined the marketing faculty in 1990 after spending eight years on the faculty of the Anderson Graduate School of Management at UCLA, and two years at the Graduate School of Industrial Administration at Carnegie-Mellon University. He also has served as a visiting professor in the school of economics at the University of Sydney. He received his PhD in Transportation Geography from the University of Iowa in 1980.
Forecasting Extreme Events: From the Effect of Catastrophic Events in the Insurance Industry to Breaking Records in Athletics
by John Einmahl, Tilburg University
John H.J. Einmahl is professor of Statistics at the Department of Econometrics & OR and research fellow at CentER, both at Tilburg University.
He holds a Ph.D. from Nijmegen University. John's research has been published in leading journals in statistics and probability theory. His research interests are mainly in nonparametric statistics and its ramifications, including statistics of extremes.
John is a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and associate editor of The Annals of Statistics, Bernoulli, and Extremes.
Financial Forecasting, Risk and Valuation: Accounting for the Future
by Stephen Penman, Columbia University
Stephen H. Penman is the George O. May Professor in the Graduate School of Business, Columbia University where he also serves as co-director of the Center for Excellence in Accounting and Security Analysis. Prior to his appointment at Columbia in 1999 he was the L.H. Penney Professor in the Walter A. Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. From 1990-95 he served as Chairman of the Professional Accounting Program and Chairman of the Accounting Faculty at Berkeley where he initiated and chaired the Haas School’s Annual Conference on Financial Reporting.
Penman has served as a Visiting Professor at Columbia University and the London Business School, as the Jan Wallander Visiting Professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, and as an Honorary Professor at City University of Hong Kong. During 2007-08, he visited Bocconi University, Beijing University, and the Swedish Institute for Financial Research. Dr. Penman serves on the Board of Directors of UBS Alternative Investment Group. He is an editor of the Review of Accounting Studies and is on the editorial board of the Schmalenbach Business Review.
Professor Penman received a first-class honors degree in Commerce from the University of Queensland, Australia, and M.B.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Chicago. He has been awarded an honorary doctorate by the Stockholm School of Economics. His research deals with the valuation of equity and the role of accounting information in security analysis. He has published widely in finance and accounting journals and has delivered numerous lectures and seminars on accounting policy, fundamental analysis, and equity evaluation for academic and professional audiences. In 1991 he was awarded the notable Contribution to Accounting Literature Award by the American Accounting Association and the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, and in 1997 received the Institute for Quantitative Research (INQUIRE) Prize. In 2002 he was awarded the American Accounting Association and Deloitte & Touche Wildman Medal for his book, Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation, published by McGraw-Hill/Irwin and now in its fourth edition.
Major Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: Their Potential Impact on the Oil and Gas Supply Chain and the Stock Market Response to Their Anticipated Landfall
by Kirk Philipich, University of Michigan
After receiving his Doctor of Business Administration degree from Indiana University, Kirk Philipich joined the faculty at the University of Notre Dame. He has served on the faculties of Saint Louis University, The Ohio State University, and Vanderbilt University. He now serves on the faculty of the University of Michigan – Dearborn and as such, he has also had the opportunity to instruct students in Hong Kong.
Professor Philipich's primary area of expertise is financial accounting and financial statement analysis. He has had the opportunity to instruct students at the undergraduate, masters, and doctoral levels. Kirk has also taught in the Auditing area as well.
Kirk's research has been published in journals such as Journal of Accounting Research, Accounting Horizons, Financial Management, and Financial Analysts’ Journal.
Forecasting Sales: A Model and Some Evidence from the Retail Industry
by Russell Lundholm, University of Michigan
Russell Lundholm is the Arthur Andersen Professor of Accounting at the University of Michigan Business School. He holds a PhD in Business Administration and a Masters of Science in Statistics from the University of Iowa. He has taught at the University of Michigan since 1993 and at Stanford University from 1987 to 1993.
Professor Lundholm’s research has been published in the Journal of Accounting Research, The Accounting Review, the Journal of Finance, the Review of Financial Studies, Econometrica, and the Journal of Political Economy. He also co-authored a book with Richard Sloan titled Equity Valuation and Analysis.
His principal teaching specialty is graduate-level financial statement analysis and financial economics with a particular emphasis on forecasting and equity valuation. He also directs an executive education class for senior investor relations professionals and regularly speaks to organizations in the investment management industry.
A Re-Examination of Analysts’ Superiority over Time-Series Forecasts
by Mark Bradshaw, Boston College
Mark Thomas Bradshaw is an associate professor of business administration at Boston College. He conducts research on capital markets, specializing in the examination of securities analysts and related financial reporting issues.
He co-authored the book, Analysts, Lies, and Statistics – Cutting through the Hype in Corporate Earnings Announcements with Brian Bruce and is co-author of the forthcoming seventh edition of the textbook, Financial Reporting, Financial Statement analysis, and Valuation, with Jim Wahlen and Stephen Baginski.
Bradshaw is an Associate Editor of Journal of Accounting and Economics and Journal of Accounting Research, is on the Editorial Board of The Accounting Review, and is a reviewer for numerous accounting and finance journals.
He teaches an undergraduate and MBA elective on Financial Statement Analysis.
Bradshaw has been a Certified Public Accountant since 1991, and is a former auditor for Arthur Andersen & Co. in Atlanta.
Bradshaw previously taught at University of Chicago, Harvard Business School, University of Michigan Business School, and University of Georgia.
14 Week Quarters
by Andrew Leone, University of Miami
Andrew Leone is currently the Department Chair, and Arthur P. Metzger Professor of Accounting in the Business School at the University of Miami. He teaches in the Masters in Accounting program as well as a healthcare accounting course in the Executive MBA program. Professor Leone has also taught in a number of specialized programs, including the Healthcare Leadership Program at the University of Rochester. Professor Leone has over twelve years of experience teaching at top business schools, including the University of Chicago, the University of Michigan, Penn State University, and the University of Rochester.
Professor Leone’s research interests are in the interplay between management incentive contracts, accounting choice, and the capital markets. He has published articles in leading academic health economics and business journals including the Journal of Health Economics, the Journal of Accounting and Economics, the Journal of Accounting Research, The Accounting Review, and Management Science. Professor Leone is also an Associate Editor at the Journal of Accounting and Economics.
In addition to his academic experience, Professor Leone has held professional positions as a Controller/CFO and an auditor. Professor Leone holds a Ph.D. in accounting from the University of Pittsburgh.
Do Industry-Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?
by Sundaresh Ramnath, University of Miami
Sundaresh Ramnath is an Assistant Professor at the University of Miami. He obtained his Ph.D. in accounting from The Pennsylvania State University.
Prior to joining the University of Miami, Sundaresh was on the faculty at Georgetown University and Rice University.
His research interest is in the use of accounting information by capital market participants and intermediaries. Sundaresh’s research has been published in the Journal of Accounting Research, Journal of Accounting and Economics, and Review of Financial Studies.
In Search of Earnings Predictability
by Joseph Engelberg, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Joseph Engelberg's research concerns corporate finance and asset pricing. Within corporate finance, he has examined the role of social networks in setting executive pay. His research in empirical asset pricing focuses on the role that media play in disseminating information in financial markets.
Before joining UNC Kenan-Flagler, he worked as a research specialist at the Securities and Exchange Commission and as a consultant for the Chicago Board of Trade and Morgan Stanley.
He received his Ph.D. in finance from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management, and his BA in mathematics and BS in business administration, summa cum laude, from the University of Southern California.
Do Competitive Advantages Lead to Higher Future Rates of Return?
by Victoria Dickinson, University of Florida
Victoria Dickinson, PhD, CPA, is an assistant professor of accounting at the Fisher School of Accounting, University of Florida. She received her doctorate from the University of Wisconsin – Madison and received a B.S. and M.S. in accounting from St. Cloud State University in Minnesota.
Vicki’s research examines the effect of financial statement analysis on equity valuation.
She worked in audit and advisory as well as positions outside of public accounting including Sr. Analyst in International Banking at Wells Fargo and Risk Analyst at Lockheed Martin.
Use of Textual Analysis in Forecasting Profitability and Returns
by Feng Li, University of Michigan
Feng Li is an Ernst & Young Assistant Professor of Accounting at the Stephen M. Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, where he teaches the second year MBA elective Corporate Financial Reporting.
Professor Li’s research examines the information content of corporate filings, including the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A). He has studied issues such as the implications of annual report readability for earnings quality and financial analyst behavior, the information content of the forward-looking statements in the MD&A, and the role of financial reporting in economic growth.
Professor Li earned a bachelor's degree with honors in Economics from Fudan University in China prior to working for an investment bank in Shanghai, China. He also earned an MBA and a doctoral degree from the University of Chicago, where he received the Deloitte & Touche Doctoral fellowship.
The Implied Cost of Capital: A New Approach
by Kewei Hou, The Ohio State University
Professor Kewei Hou’s primary research interest is in the area of empirical asset pricing with a specialization in the predictability of stock returns.
He has published in top-tier journals, including the Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Financial Studies, and Journal of Accounting and Economics.
He is a Faculty Research Fellow of the Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics, and is the recipient of research grants from the Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance (Q-Group), INQUIRE-Europe, INQUIRE-UK, BSI GAMMA Foundation, Chicago Quantitative Alliance, and Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong.
Professor Hou joined the Ohio State University Fisher College of Business in 2001. He received his B.S. in Electrical Engineering from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) and his Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.
Customer Base Concentration: Implications for Firm Performance and Capital Markets
by Panos Patatoukas, Yale University
Born and raised in Athens, Greece, Panos N. Patatoukas completed his undergraduate studies at Athens University of Economics & Business and graduated Valedictorian. He spent a year at Lancaster University as an EU Erasmus Fellow. In 2004, he received his MSc degree with distinction from the London School of Economics.Panos is currently completing his PhD at Yale University.
His dissertation adopts a new integrative perspective on economic linkages among firms that calls for a joint exploration of elements of accounting, finance, operations management, and marketing research.
Panos received the 2009 American Accounting Association Northeast Region Best PhD Student Paper Award for his paper “Customer-base concentration: Implications for firm performance and capital markets.”
Paul Poteet, Meteorologist, Media Weather Forecaster
Paul Poteet is a one man, 24/7 content machine with one foot in broadcasting and one in broadbanding. He’s a professional meteorologist who doesn’t just do the weather. A lifelong interest in weather intersected with a booth announcing gig in television during the 1980’s, which led to Paul becoming an integral part of Indianapolis morning TV from 1995-2009. “Indiana’s Weatherman” was the first Indiana television personality to plant a flag on the web, starting his own website back in the pre-broadband days of 1998. Poteet earned his Meteorologist certification from Mississippi State University.
Poteet was named “Best Indianapolis Weatherman” by the readers of NUVO Magazine in 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009. In 2005 he also came in second for “Sexiest TV Personality.” That was one spicy year. For 2 1/2 years Poteet and television traffic reporter Tom Davis hosted and produced “Off The Cuff,” an online comedy show that had absolutely nothing to do with either traffic or weather.
Poteet claims his biggest accomplishment ever was finding his wife early in life when they met at a radio station in northeastern Indiana. They have two cool sons, and a beautiful daughter-in-law. Mr. & Mrs. Poteet love to bike, and travel. Paul runs, and has completed one marathon and several half-marathons. He has an interest in old time radio and television; even older than the stuff he’s done. His taste in movies and television is mostly comedy, while his taste in literature leans mostly towards nonfiction. He strives for nonfiction in his forecasts.